With Broncos great looking as if he won't run, candidate blitz is on

By Burt Hubbard
Denver Rocky Mountain News Staff Writer

Two years ago, it was called the John Elway seat.

Today, it's a wide-open race for the state's new seventh congressional seat with the former Denver Broncos quarterback apparently showing no interest in becoming part of the Washington establishment, according to political analysts.

"I think Elway's name has come and gone," said political consultant Chris Paulson.

The Census Bureau made it official Thursday — Colorado will pick up a new seat in the House of Representatives.

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And there is no shortage of candidates.

"I bet the line is forming as we speak," said analyst Katy Atkinson.

The names of State Treasurer Mike Coffman, former state legislators Martha Kreutz and Bill Schroeder and current legislators Norma Anderson and John Evans have been bandied about by the Republican Party.

Among Democrats, the potential candidates include Jefferson County District Attorney Dave Thomas and state Sen. Ed Perlmutter.

A lot depends on where the seat is located. The state legislature and Gov. Bill Owens will make that decision.

Conventional wisdom places it somewhere in the fast-growing south metro area, possibly passing through parts of Arapahoe, Jefferson and Douglas counties.

That would favor Republicans.

"For Democrats in the south metro area, it will be really tough," said state Senate Minority Leader Michael Feeley.

Coffman, who has already won a statewide race for treasurer, could be an early favorite, said pollster and analyst Floyd Ciruli.

"He's got a statewide position and could obviously raise money," Ciruli said.

Kreutz and Schroeder, who lost the Republican primary against Tom Tancredo two years ago for the 6th congressional seat, also may be viable candidates, Feeley said.

Feeley said former state House Minority Leader Peggy Kerns is one Democrat who could surface from the south metro area.

A different set of candidates emerges if the new seat is centered in Jefferson County, analysts said.

State Sen. Norma Anderson could be a leading candidate for that seat, as would Jefferson County commissioners Michelle Lawrence and Pat Holloway, Paulson said.

On the Democratic side, Thomas and Perlmutter, who is term-limited in two years, are top candidates, the analysts said.

And adding to the confusion is the prospect that other House and Senate seats might open up if incumbents such as Joel Hefley, Scott McInnis and Ben Nighthorse Campbell become part of the Bush administration, Ciruli said.

As for Elway, none of the analysts thinks he is interested in running for office now.

"Does John Elway really need that kind of headache?" Feeley asked.

But if he changed his mind.

"He could frankly do whatever he wants," Ciruli said.