The series
• Monday: A third of eighth-graders who were in Denver Public Schools in the fall of 1999 — and 43 percent of those who went on to ninth grade — ended up graduating from a DPS school, according to a first-of-its-kind analysis of student data by a University of Colorado at Denver associate professor, the school district and the Rocky Mountain News.
• Tuesday: Meet DPS students whose determination to succeed helped them overcome homelessness, poverty or other obstacles to graduation.
• Wednesday: Meet students who didn’t thrive at traditional Denver high schools.
• Thursday: Meet kids on the edge whose lives could take a turn for better or worse.
• Friday: Abraham Lincoln High School is beginning to see positive results from its efforts to keep kids in school and help them achieve.
Key findings
The Rocky Mountain News, in partnership with Denver Public Schools and Alan Davis, associate professor of educational psychology at the University of Colorado at Denver, analyzed district data for the 5,633 students who were in eighth grade in 1999 to determine what happened to them during the next five years. The analysis also looked at information such as grades, attendance and test scores as this class progressed through high school. Here's what the analysis found:
One-third of the eighth-graders in this class went on to graduate from a DPS high school with the Class of 2004.
43% of those in the class who entered ninth grade at a DPS high school later graduated.
37% of those who were in the eighth-grade class - and 32% of the ninth- graders - eventually dropped out, with no record of enrolling in another school.
21% of the eighth- grade class - and 15% of ninth-graders - eventually trans- ferred outside DPS.
7% of the eighth- grade class - and 9% of the ninth- graders - were still in school in the fall for a fifth year of high school.
Racial/ethnic and gender differences
• Hispanic dropouts from eighth grade on outnumbered Hispanic graduates, 1,167 to 759. Twenty-seven percent of the Hispanic eighth-graders in the class - and 35 percent of the ninth-graders - graduated from a DPS high school.
A disproportionate number of Hispanics dropped out. Hispanics accounted for nearly half of this class but only 40 percent of the graduates.
• Forty-five percent of the white eighth-graders graduated from DPS - 60 percent of ninth-graders. Whites were overrepresented among graduates - they made up 24 percent of the class of eighth-graders but 32 percent of graduates.
• Black students, who made up 22 percent of the eighth-grade class and 22 percent of the graduates, had a graduation rate of 38 percent of the eighth-graders and 41 percent of ninth-graders.
• Females fared better than males. Fewer than half the students in ninth grade were girls, but they made up 55 percent of the graduates.
• The class had few Asian students - 3.4 percent - and even fewer American Indian students - 1.5 percent. Asians had the highest graduation rate at 64 percent and American Indians had the lowest - 27 percent from the ninth-grade class.
What happened in high school
• More than one in four students in the class had fallen behind at least one grade by their fourth year in high school. About 5 percent were still at a ninth-grade level in what should have been their senior year. (Grade level in high school is determined by how many course credits a student has earned.)
• Almost half the students who made it through four years of high school had been disciplined at least once since the eighth grade. That includes more than 60 percent of black students, 47 percent of Hispanic students and 30 percent of white students.
The discipline ranged from trips to the principal's office to in-school suspension to suspension from school. Infractions ranged from "disruptive appearances" to fights.
The predictors for those who drop out
• Overall, a student's grade point average, attendance and family income in eighth grade were the three most important indicators of whether a student graduated five years later. Students in the class who went on to graduate had an average grade of B in eighth grade, compared with C- for students who later dropped out.
• Students in this class missed an average of 12 days out of the 175-day school year in the eighth grade.
Those who later dropped out missed an average of 34 days in eighth grade - 22 more than those who graduated. In 10th grade, those who eventually dropped out missed an average of 52 days of school - 38 more days than graduates.
• Eventual dropouts were twice as likely to have been disciplined or suspended in eighth grade as graduates were.
When they left
• A higher percentage of white students dropped out or transferred out of DPS between eighth and ninth grades than any other racial or ethnic group.
• Hispanic students were most likely to drop out in ninth or 10th grade.
• Black students were less likely than white or Hispanic students to drop out before the ninth grade.
Predictors by race or ethnicity
• Among Hispanic students, seven factors played a role in whether they would graduate - grade point average, income, English language skills, attendance, CSAP math test scores, discipline/suspensions and whether students were held back a year. The three most important were GPA, attendance and whether students were behind by a grade or more.
• For black students, GPA, attendance and income were the major factors in whether they graduated.
• Among white students, income and GPA were the main factors in whether they graduated.
The expert
Alan Davis, who worked with the Rocky Mountain News on the study of the class of eighth-graders who were in Denver Public Schools in the fall of 1999, is an associate professor of research and evaluation methodology in the School of Edcuation at the University of Colorado at Denver.
• Education: Bachelor's degree in economics from Pomona College in Claremont, Calif.; master's degree in social studies teaching from Harvard University; doctorate in research and evaluation methodology from the University of Colorado.
• Experience: Taught junior high school and high school for nine years and was a senior research associate for the Northwest Regional Education Laboratory and RMC Research before joining UCD.
• Research: Focuses on the relationship between learning and activity, including studies of high-achieving schools for Hispanic students, highly successful elementary classrooms for black and Hispanic students, urban classrooms and effective writing instruction for low-income students.
His most recent research is on the engagement of middle-school students in and out of school, and the relationship of learning, activity and identity among black adolescents.
• Honors: Outstanding Researcher Award in the School of Education in 1992 and Outstanding Teacher Award in 2000. Has served as president of the Association of Colorado Educational Evaluators and is on the editorial board of the Journal of Education of Students Placed at Risk.
The method
The Rocky Mountain News conducted a study of Denver Public Schools data in partnership with the district and Alan Davis, associate professor of research and evaluation methodology at the University of Colorado at Denver.
The study analyzed the class of 5,633 students who attended eighth grade in DPS in the 1999-2000 school year. Choosing an eighth- grade class allowed analysis of students who came to Denver high schools from within the DPS system as opposed to those who came from elsewhere into Denver high schools.
DPS provided computer files, masking students' identity by assigning them numbers, that included information through the 2003-2004 school year on grade point averages, attendance, ethnicity, gender, age, scores on ACT college entrance exams and CSAP tests, suspensions and disciplinary actions, English language skills in the eighth grade, and whether students were considered as living in poverty in the fall of 2000 based on their eligibility for free- or reduced-priced lunches.
In addition, DPS provided electronic data files listing the reasons students left the district's schools.
Based on this information, Davis electronically classified each of the original 5,633 students as graduates, dropouts, transfers to other school districts or private schools, or still in DPS for a fifth year.
He also separately classified 106 other students who had been expelled, jailed, suffered long-term illnesses or had another emergency reason for leaving school. The News included these as dropouts in its stories and graphics. The status of 65 students was unknown.
The information stretched over five years and is subject to data entry error. It is possible that some students classified as dropouts could have transferred and those classified as transfers may have dropped out.
That is especially possible with eighth-graders because they could transfer to another school district and not need to notify DPS or ask for their eighth-grade transcripts for a record of credits toward graduation. High school students transferring to another high school are more likely to ask for transcripts.
Davis used statistical computer software to analyze which factors had the biggest impact on whether a student would graduate from or drop out of high school. DPS officials did a similar analysis using slightly different statistical approaches. The results were similar.
Davis also compared differences between graduates and dropouts by ethnicity and gender.
To examine what happens to students once they are in high school, the News focused much of its analysis, charts and graphics on the 4,367 members of the eighth-grade class who went on to ninth grade in DPS. Other students left DPS in eighth grade and returned in subsequent years. The News analyzed the 4,367 by gender, ethnicity, academic performance, attendance, income and suspensions. The analysis does not include students who entered DPS after eighth grade.
In addition, the News analyzed what happened to the students from the class who started out in each of Denver's 11 main high schools in the 2000-2001 school year. The percentage who graduated from each school is based on the number of students from the original class who attended the school in the 2000-2001 year (ninth grade) and graduated from DPS.
In the case of Manual High School, the News combined the students from the three smaller high schools created from Manual four years ago and treated them as one school for purposes of the analysis.
From the editor
I warn you. This series is disturbing.
It would be easy to blame the kids. But it's not the kids who are the problem.
It's the adults who are responsible. We can look for excuses, or we can find solutions.
I think it's time to find solutions.
We can only do that by working together, as a community. What we won't be able to do after this series is deny the problem or say the public doesn't understand.
This series will give you the facts. Denver Public Schools has reviewed our research and our methodology. You'll find no disagreement from the district about the accuracy of the data.
The question is what you'll do with it.
I hope you'll act.
We've got to do something.
As North High School French teacher Bobby Fischer told the Rocky Mountain News recently, "I know we can't keep doing the same thing. Or we can, and we can keep losing kids."
The latter choice isn't acceptable.
On that, I'm sure we all agree.
-- John Temple